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PSCI™ this week

113.84 ↑ +0.68% WoW

• Third consecutive weekly increase, and this one is entirely fuel.
• Diesel did all the work: EIA week ending July 27 put US retail diesel at $5.313/gal, up 3.5% from $5.134 - a third straight climb, and $1.55 above where it sat two years ago.
• Producer prices held flat: wood pallet (191.854), softwood lumber (282.733) and corrugated containers (375.493) are all unchanged at their June prints. July producer prices post mid-August.
• Warehouse earnings carried forward at the May print of $25.92 (CES4349300008) - BLS has not released June for this series. Disclosed under methodology Section 13; the carried weight is 15%, inside the 30% limit.
• The 30-day projection reads 113.29 (80% CI 109.52-115.80), below the current print - the model treats part of this three-week diesel run as mean-reverting rather than a new level.

Components this week