PSCI now 110.49, +0.4% from last Tuesday and 9.8% above its Jan 2024 base. Driver: Paper Containers PPI +6.2% MoM, the largest single-component move since Q4 2024 -- OCC-grade and recycled-fiber-heavy specs are most exposed.
30-day forecast lands at 111.2 (80% CI: 110.5 -- 112.0). PADD 1 (Northeast) renewals should consider locking ahead of likely Q2 firming. PSPI at +0.8 confirms tightening capacity into Q3.
The forecast cone in the headline fan graph is generated by an open-source model from Google Research. We publish how it is applied, which series feed it, and how to reproduce its output -- the prediction method itself is auditable, not just the underlying data.
The forecast cone above is produced by TimesFM 2.5 -- Google Research's open-source time-series foundation model, released January 2026. Pallet Solutions doesn't train this model. We don't fine-tune it. We route the same five federal cost-input series through Google's published checkpoints and publish the results.
Forecast methodology is reproducible. Anyone with BigQuery access can run AI.FORECAST against the same federal data series and arrive at the same projection within minor model nondeterminism (typically <0.1% on horizon-end values). The 80% confidence interval is the model's own uncertainty estimate -- not a post-processed number we generated. The interval is wide because pallet cost-input forecasts are genuinely uncertain at the 30-day horizon. That's the honest answer.
The model is open-source under Apache 2.0. The data sources are public domain. The methodology version is pinned (AI Forecast Layer v1.0 with TimesFM 2.5). A procurement reviewer can audit not just the data, but the prediction method itself.
12 months of MoM percentage changes plus a +30D forecast column for each PSCI input. Past data colored by magnitude (legend above the matrix). Forecast column rendered in gold. Click a component name to swap the headline fan graph above into that component's trajectory; click an "i" indicator for context on a material move.
EIA Weekly Retail Diesel by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD-level breakouts). Color reflects current price level; arrows reflect AI Forecast Layer 30-day directional projection. Hover any region for the exact value. Atlas subscribers see this rolled up to their network's PADD distribution.
WARN Act notices are state-level public records of mass layoffs and plant closures. Aggregated by PADD region and manufacturing NAICS, they signal pallet demand softening 60-90 days ahead -- when a manufacturer closes, their pallet vendor loses corridor volume within a quarter. Sign-inverted in PSPI methodology -- rising WARN volume contributes to a falling demand pressure index.
The WARN tracker is being built. The signal will surface here as a 30-day rolling heatmap by PADD plus the top mass-layoff notices for the trailing month, NAICS-filtered to manufacturing (31-33). Until live, the WARN component continues to feed PSPI internally as the sign-inverted demand-side input. See methodology for the formula.
PSPI is the Pallet Solutions Pressure Index -- a forward-looking demand-pressure read with a 60-90 day lead on pallet vendor capacity. Composed from housing starts (25%), ISM Manufacturing PMI (20%), container imports (20%), industrial construction spending (15%), retail trade sales (10%), and WARN volume (10%, sign-inverted). Released the second Friday of each month.
The dashed and dotted lines are reference comparisons -- the chart's time scale is 6 months.
Three procurement timing reads tied to this week's PSCI movement and the 30-day forecast. Not financial advice -- procurement-decision signals from the federal data above. Each ties back to a specific input series you can audit.
The forecast supports locking ahead of likely Q2 firming. PADD 1 diesel is +1.2% YoY and the AI Forecast Layer projects another +1.8% over the next 30 days. Wood Pallet PPI is rising in tandem.
Watch Paper Containers PPI weekly. The +6.2% MoM jump this week is the largest single-component move in the series since Q4 2024. Recycled-fiber-heavy pallet costs are exposed to corrugated input pressure.
The national PSCI weights all components equally across DCs. Paste your facility ZIPs into Atlas to see the read weighted to your network's PADD distribution, then start the standing procurement record for your corridor -- a dated, federally-cited entry per Tuesday that compounds into the case for your next RFQ.
Each edition is dated and version-pinned. Scroll back to verify past forecasts against subsequent observed data, or to cite historical PSCI levels in budget review.
This page is the Tuesday Read. Same content arrives via email every Tuesday at 10:00 AM ET, after BLS and EIA federal data drops Tuesday morning. Plain-English read, source-cited, forecast-included. Free.
Every input value on this page traces to one of the public-domain series below. PSCI is a weighted geometric mean across the cost-input series; PSPI is a weighted arithmetic mean across the demand-side series. Copy this block for procurement audit documentation.