# Regional 30-day forecast backtest (Phase B Task 5 - the gate)

Generated: 2026-06-11 ·
Pipeline: BigQuery AI.FORECAST (TimesFM 2.5), horizon 4 weeks (~30 days), 80% CI - identical settings to production.
Method: rolling-origin holdout, non-overlapping 4-week windows, up to 10 cut points per series.

## Correlation caveat (read first)

The six regional series are highly correlated with the national series BY
CONSTRUCTION - each is the national PSCI times a (PADD diesel / national
diesel)^0.20 ratio, so 80% of every region's movement IS the national
movement. The regional backtest therefore mostly re-tests the national
forecast plus a small diesel divergence term. The National row below is the
like-for-like comparison.

## Results

| Series | Windows | 80% CI coverage | MAE (index pts) | Mean CI width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 10 | 60.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 2.16 | 3.70 |
| Southeast | 10 | 40.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 1.97 | 3.02 |
| Great Lakes | 10 | 40.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 2.53 | 3.85 |
| Texas + South Central | 10 | 50.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 2.60 | 4.18 |
| Plains + Mountain | 10 | 40.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 1.99 | 3.22 |
| West Coast | 10 | 50.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 2.57 | 3.21 |
| National | 10 | 50.0% **FLAG: under 65%** | 2.10 | 3.86 |
| **Pooled (6 regions)** | 60 | 46.7% **FLAG: under 65%** | 2.30 | 3.53 |

## Cut points used

- Northeast: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02
- Southeast: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02
- Great Lakes: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02
- Texas + South Central: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02
- Plains + Mountain: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02
- West Coast: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02
- National: 2026-05-12, 2026-04-14, 2026-03-17, 2026-02-17, 2026-01-20, 2025-12-23, 2025-11-25, 2025-10-28, 2025-09-30, 2025-09-02

## Per-window detail

### Northeast

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 110.62 | 106.58 | [102.64, 110.60] | NO |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 109.49 | 110.09 | [105.91, 114.55] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 112.75 | 106.35 | [102.84, 110.63] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 108.56 | 101.45 | [100.48, 102.17] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 101.35 | 100.78 | [99.79, 101.71] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.11 | 99.48 | [98.62, 100.32] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 98.81 | 100.19 | [99.36, 101.02] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 100.23 | 99.58 | [98.69, 100.37] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 99.35 | 99.49 | [98.57, 100.33] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 99.44 | 99.48 | [98.23, 100.48] | yes |

### Southeast

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 113.60 | 110.30 | [107.56, 113.31] | NO |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 111.76 | 113.95 | [110.18, 117.95] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 114.75 | 108.93 | [106.69, 111.45] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 109.32 | 105.31 | [103.89, 106.72] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 104.52 | 102.60 | [101.61, 103.59] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 102.58 | 101.34 | [100.70, 101.93] | NO |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 101.40 | 101.65 | [100.97, 102.30] | yes |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.60 | 100.70 | [99.87, 101.32] | NO |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.89 | 100.87 | [100.08, 101.49] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.95 | 100.88 | [100.01, 101.68] | yes |

### Great Lakes

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 112.23 | 109.98 | [105.58, 115.11] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 111.63 | 108.31 | [103.91, 113.42] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 112.19 | 106.56 | [103.44, 110.13] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 108.19 | 101.11 | [99.55, 101.95] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 101.64 | 99.27 | [98.18, 100.20] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 99.52 | 98.27 | [97.45, 98.99] | NO |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 98.40 | 100.39 | [99.52, 101.21] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 100.55 | 99.60 | [98.85, 100.28] | NO |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 99.75 | 99.60 | [98.69, 100.30] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 99.75 | 99.47 | [98.24, 100.35] | yes |

### Texas + South Central

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 110.10 | 105.93 | [101.66, 110.26] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 108.96 | 109.83 | [105.36, 114.96] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 111.89 | 103.96 | [99.56, 110.02] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 107.59 | 99.83 | [98.58, 100.86] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 100.20 | 98.61 | [97.71, 99.35] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 98.36 | 97.43 | [96.40, 98.36] | NO |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 96.83 | 98.62 | [97.75, 99.40] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 98.42 | 97.78 | [96.92, 98.50] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 97.70 | 97.96 | [97.03, 98.82] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 97.99 | 98.09 | [96.88, 99.11] | yes |

### Plains + Mountain

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 111.97 | 111.05 | [108.03, 114.63] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 110.36 | 111.75 | [108.54, 115.02] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 111.66 | 107.99 | [105.72, 110.38] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 107.42 | 100.88 | [99.05, 101.86] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 101.32 | 98.74 | [97.48, 99.84] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 98.35 | 97.00 | [95.75, 98.28] | NO |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 97.37 | 99.45 | [98.57, 100.35] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 99.87 | 99.07 | [98.22, 99.86] | NO |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 99.59 | 99.63 | [98.81, 100.38] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 99.75 | 100.27 | [99.28, 101.09] | yes |

### West Coast

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 116.13 | 113.70 | [111.08, 116.29] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 114.36 | 117.37 | [113.18, 122.51] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 117.64 | 109.77 | [107.21, 112.58] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 111.79 | 105.24 | [103.72, 106.08] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 105.34 | 103.55 | [102.52, 104.38] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 103.49 | 101.90 | [100.96, 102.85] | NO |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 102.18 | 103.95 | [103.26, 104.59] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 103.80 | 103.66 | [103.00, 104.23] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 103.58 | 104.07 | [103.21, 104.84] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 103.71 | 103.74 | [102.63, 104.56] | yes |

### National

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 112.35 | 109.82 | [106.04, 113.94] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 111.84 | 112.53 | [108.01, 118.20] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 114.02 | 108.88 | [105.28, 112.86] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 109.49 | 102.44 | [101.17, 103.32] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 102.71 | 101.13 | [100.16, 101.95] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.81 | 100.05 | [99.14, 100.89] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 99.53 | 101.34 | [100.54, 102.13] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.25 | 100.25 | [99.35, 100.95] | NO |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.56 | 100.76 | [99.73, 101.59] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.67 | 100.90 | [99.65, 101.89] | yes |

## Plain-English verdict (template - finalize from the numbers above)

Pooled coverage of 46.7% against an 80% target,
with a mean point error of 2.30 index points and a mean
band width of 3.53 points, vs national coverage of
50.0%. Coverage is OUTSIDE the acceptable band - do not ship the claim; see the fallback note.

**HARD GATE: this report goes to Rob. Tasks 6-8 (rendering the regional
projection on /market-pulse, removing the no-regional-forecast disclaimers,
methodology v1.5) run ONLY on his explicit go. If the verdict is ugly, the
fallback - publishing the diesel-attribution arithmetic as the regional
forward signal instead - is Rob's call.**


---

# National addendum - production component-wise vs composite-direct

Generated: 2026-06-11 · Pipeline: BigQuery AI.FORECAST (TimesFM 2.5), horizon 4 weeks (~30 days), 80% CI.
Same rolling-origin protocol and the SAME 10 cut points as the regional/National backtest above.

## What this tests

The first backtest forecast the PSCI **composite series directly**. Production does **not** do that - it forecasts the **five component series separately** (wood 40% / lumber 20% / diesel 20% / wages 15% / paper 5%) and composes them by the published weights (geometric). This addendum runs the production method through the identical protocol so the two are directly comparable. Actuals are the same composite PSCI values; only the forecasting method differs.

## Head-to-head

| Method | Windows | 80% CI coverage | MAE (index pts) | Mean CI width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite-direct (forecast PSCI itself) | 10 | 50.0% | 2.10 | 3.86 |
| **Component-wise (production: forecast 5, compose)** | 10 | 80.0% | 1.85 | 4.74 |

## Regime split (before vs during the spring-2026 run-up)

"During" = holdout actual on/after 2026-02-01 (the sustained climb from ~102 to ~114). "Before" = the calm 2025 tail.

| Method | Before coverage | Before MAE | During coverage | During MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite-direct | 60.0% (5w) | 0.80 | 40.0% (5w) | 3.40 |
| Component-wise | 100.0% (5w) | 0.76 | 60.0% (5w) | 2.93 |

## Per-window detail - component-wise (production method)

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 112.35 | 111.77 | [108.37, 114.99] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 111.84 | 114.13 | [109.77, 118.53] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 114.02 | 109.00 | [105.85, 112.19] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 109.49 | 103.61 | [101.66, 105.89] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 102.71 | 101.82 | [99.44, 105.37] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.81 | 99.56 | [97.89, 101.49] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 99.53 | 101.02 | [99.43, 102.64] | yes |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.25 | 100.68 | [99.21, 102.04] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.56 | 100.89 | [99.51, 102.32] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.67 | 100.83 | [99.26, 102.30] | yes |

## Per-window detail - composite-direct (from the first backtest, for reference)

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Forecast | 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 112.35 | 109.82 | [106.04, 113.94] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 111.84 | 112.53 | [108.01, 118.20] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 114.02 | 108.88 | [105.28, 112.86] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 109.49 | 102.44 | [101.17, 103.32] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 102.71 | 101.13 | [100.16, 101.95] | NO |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.81 | 100.05 | [99.14, 100.89] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 99.53 | 101.34 | [100.54, 102.13] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.25 | 100.25 | [99.35, 100.95] | NO |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.56 | 100.76 | [99.73, 101.59] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.67 | 100.90 | [99.65, 101.89] | yes |

## Plain-English verdict

Over 10 non-overlapping 30-day windows, the production component-wise method posts **80.0% empirical coverage** of its 80% band (near the 80% target), MAE 1.85 index points, mean band width 4.74 - vs the composite-direct method's 50.0% / 2.10 / 3.86. The regime split is the tell: before the run-up, coverage is 100.0% (component-wise) vs 60.0% (composite-direct); during the run-up it falls to 60.0% vs 40.0%. Both methods are calibrated in calm weeks and both miss low during the sustained climb - TimesFM extrapolates the recent plateau and the 80% band is too tight to absorb a regime change at a 30-day horizon. Composing the component bounds geometrically yields a WIDER band than forecasting the composite directly, which lifts coverage somewhat but does not fix the run-up miss.

**This is a measurement, not a recommendation.** Whether to disclose the coverage, widen the interval, or drop the "80%" label on the national forecast is Rob's decision. No site, methodology, or copy change has been made.


---

# Regional, component-wise (production method)

Generated: 2026-06-11 · Pipeline: BigQuery AI.FORECAST (TimesFM 2.5), horizon 4 weeks (~30 days), 80% CI.
Same rolling-origin protocol and the SAME 10 cut points as both prior backtests.

## Method

Forecast the four shared national components (wood/lumber/wages/paper) once, plus each region's PADD diesel (that PADD's pump price normalized to its own Jan-2024=100); compose per region by the published weights (0.40/0.20/0.20/0.15/0.05, geometric); 80% band composed comonotonically (geometric compose of the per-component bounds). Actuals are the methodology-correct v0.3 regional index (the same composition of actual component values). This is the method `build-psci-regional-forecast.mjs` now ships.

## All three methods, side by side

| Method | Windows | 80% CI coverage | MAE (index pts) | Mean CI width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional composite-direct (artifact, first backtest) | 60 | 46.7% | 2.30 | 3.53 |
| National composite-direct (first backtest) | 10 | 50.0% | 2.10 | 3.86 |
| National component-wise (production, addendum) | 10 | 80.0% | 1.85 | 4.74 |
| **Regional component-wise (production, this run) - pooled** | 60 | 73.3% | 2.12 | 4.66 |

## Per region (component-wise)

| Region | Windows | 80% CI coverage | MAE | Mean CI width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 10 | 70.0% | 2.16 | 4.56 |
| Southeast | 10 | 80.0% | 2.02 | 4.04 |
| Great Lakes | 10 | 70.0% | 2.10 | 5.21 |
| Texas + South Central | 10 | 70.0% | 2.26 | 5.06 |
| Plains + Mountain | 10 | 80.0% | 1.83 | 4.63 |
| West Coast | 10 | 70.0% | 2.35 | 4.43 |
| **Pooled (6 regions)** | 60 | 73.3% | 2.12 | 4.66 |

## Regime split (before vs during the spring-2026 run-up), pooled

"During" = holdout actual on/after 2026-02-01.

| Method | Before coverage | Before MAE | During coverage | During MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional component-wise (pooled) | 83.3% (30w) | 0.81 | 63.3% (30w) | 3.43 |

## Per-window detail by region

### Northeast

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 111.60 | 110.01 | [106.90, 112.71] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 110.46 | 114.18 | [109.95, 118.24] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 113.75 | 108.54 | [104.92, 112.07] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 109.52 | 103.00 | [101.10, 105.35] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 102.25 | 101.84 | [99.63, 105.25] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 101.00 | 99.55 | [98.16, 101.20] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 99.68 | 101.15 | [99.85, 102.52] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.12 | 100.52 | [98.99, 101.92] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.24 | 100.84 | [99.31, 102.40] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.32 | 100.25 | [98.78, 101.58] | yes |

### Southeast

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 115.52 | 112.90 | [109.77, 115.85] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 113.65 | 115.42 | [111.65, 119.08] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 116.68 | 109.47 | [106.60, 112.98] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 111.16 | 106.55 | [104.70, 108.80] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 106.29 | 104.76 | [102.88, 107.78] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 104.31 | 103.13 | [102.10, 104.44] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 103.10 | 103.16 | [102.19, 104.28] | yes |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 103.32 | 102.55 | [101.49, 103.55] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 102.60 | 102.87 | [101.67, 104.22] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 102.66 | 102.86 | [101.66, 104.09] | yes |

### Great Lakes

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 113.72 | 112.34 | [108.58, 116.35] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 113.11 | 113.29 | [108.46, 117.80] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 113.68 | 106.52 | [103.05, 111.07] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 109.62 | 103.40 | [101.31, 105.86] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 102.99 | 101.90 | [99.53, 105.81] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.84 | 99.65 | [98.07, 101.68] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 99.70 | 101.94 | [100.21, 103.64] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.88 | 100.80 | [99.31, 102.21] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 101.08 | 101.38 | [99.90, 102.94] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 101.07 | 101.27 | [99.61, 102.82] | yes |

### Texas + South Central

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 113.05 | 111.66 | [107.92, 115.01] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 111.88 | 114.76 | [109.82, 119.53] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 114.89 | 108.85 | [104.98, 113.15] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 110.47 | 103.55 | [101.48, 105.97] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 102.89 | 102.03 | [99.73, 105.46] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.99 | 99.87 | [98.41, 101.70] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 99.42 | 101.15 | [99.68, 102.60] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 101.06 | 100.09 | [98.50, 101.53] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.33 | 100.62 | [99.12, 102.13] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.61 | 100.23 | [98.62, 101.76] | yes |

### Plains + Mountain

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 112.34 | 111.31 | [108.39, 114.27] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 110.72 | 113.33 | [109.83, 116.90] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 112.02 | 109.43 | [105.89, 112.59] | yes |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 107.76 | 102.03 | [99.30, 104.71] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 101.65 | 99.37 | [96.88, 103.02] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 98.67 | 98.46 | [96.62, 100.54] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 97.68 | 100.20 | [98.95, 101.46] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 100.20 | 99.86 | [98.39, 101.18] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 99.92 | 100.45 | [99.01, 101.91] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.08 | 100.51 | [98.97, 101.95] | yes |

### West Coast

| Cut | Actual date | Actual | Composed forecast | Composed 80% CI | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-06-09 | 112.27 | 110.64 | [107.13, 114.13] | yes |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-12 | 110.56 | 114.78 | [110.32, 118.92] | yes |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-14 | 113.72 | 106.94 | [103.89, 110.01] | NO |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-17 | 108.07 | 102.20 | [100.38, 104.34] | NO |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-17 | 101.84 | 100.84 | [98.79, 103.99] | yes |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-20 | 100.05 | 98.86 | [97.44, 100.59] | yes |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-23 | 98.77 | 100.57 | [99.47, 101.80] | NO |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-25 | 100.34 | 100.23 | [98.88, 101.47] | yes |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 100.13 | 100.69 | [99.43, 101.99] | yes |
| 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-30 | 100.25 | 100.64 | [99.23, 102.07] | yes |

## Plain-English verdict

Pooled over 60 region-windows, the production component-wise regional method posts **73.3% empirical coverage** of its 80% band, MAE 2.12 index points, mean width 4.66 - against the composite-direct regional artifact's 46.7% / 2.30 / 3.53 that drove the original no-go. Before the run-up coverage is 83.3%; during the run-up it is 63.3% - the same regime sensitivity the national pipeline shows, since ~80% of each region IS the national signal by construction. The regional method tracks the national result because it is the national method with one component localized.

**This is a measurement, not a recommendation.** The regional gate decision is Rob's on these numbers. No site, methodology, or disclaimer change has been made; the park note in PSCI_TUESDAY_UPDATE.md stands until Rob says otherwise.